Scopolamine Challenge Study

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 389 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: pfplacebo controlledblind placeboacuteor equal
  Phrases that lowered it: healthycrossoversubjectskgway
• Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 923 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 75.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Assessment Of The Effects Of Single Doses Of An Investigational Drug, Given Alone Or With Donepezil, On Scopolamine-Induced Changes In Memory And Learning In Healthy Adults NCT01345864 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials terminated
• A Study To Observe Safety And Blood Concentrations Of PF-06412562 During And Following The Oral Administration Of Multiple Doses Of PF-06412562 In Healthy Adult Volunteers NCT01959594 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Multiple Ascending Dose Study To Assess Safety, Tolerability And Pharmacokinetics Of PF-05212377 (SAM-760) NCT01159496 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• A Study To Examine Safety, Pharmacokinetics, And Pharmacodynamic Of Pf 06412562 In Healthy Males NCT02306876 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
• A Study To Examine The Distribution Of PF-05212377 In The Brain Of Healthy Volunteer Subjects Using Positron Emission Tomography And A Radioactive Tracer Following Oral Administration Of One Dose Of PF-05212377 NCT02005991 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.