BIBW 2992 (Afatinib) and Vinorelbine in Japanese Patients With Advanced Solid Tumours

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-05-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 189 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: determinechemotherapyintravenouscombination within combination
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacy andjapaneseonce dailyopen labelpharmacokinetic
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 90 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 74 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 1214 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Afatinib and Vinorelbine in Tumours Known to Overexpress EGFR and/or HER2 NCT00906698 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• An Open Label Phase I Dose Escalation Trial of Intravenous BI 6727 (Volasertib)in Combination With Oral BIBW 2992 (Afatinib) in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumours NCT01206816 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Phase I Dose Escalation Study of Concomitant BIBF 1120 and BIBW 2992 in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumours. NCT00998296 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• Study to Determine the Maximum Tolerated Dose of BIBW 2992 (Afatinib) When Combined With Cisplatin/Paclitaxel or Cisplatin/5-FU in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumours NCT00716417 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Pharmacokinetics ABBV-399 in Japanese Participants With Solid Tumors NCT03311477 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.