An Open Label Study for Participants With Rheumatoid Arthritis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2014-02-28, after 2011-06-30 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “efficacy”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 570 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: and efficacysafety andlong termsafeterm safety
Phrases that lowered it: participantsperiodarthritisweeksrheumatoid -
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 570 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 198 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- immunology, dermatology, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- tabalumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- An Open Label Extension Study in Participants With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT00837811 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
- A Rheumatoid Arthritis Study in Participants NCT01202760 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
- A Rheumatoid Arthritis Study in Participants on a Background Treatment of Methotrexate NCT01198002 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials terminated
- A Study of Japanese Rheumatoid Arthritis Participants NCT01253291 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- A Study for Patients With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Despite Ongoing Methotrexate Therapy NCT00785928 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.