A Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled, Sequential Ascending, Single-dose Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of E2212 in Healthy Subjects

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ascendingsafety tolerabilitytolerability pharmacokineticsdose studyand pharmacodynamics
  Phrases that lowered it: healthysingleevaluatesmokingalcohol
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 43 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 101 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of E2082 in Healthy Male Subjects NCT03402178 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Assess the Safety and Tolerability of E2511 in Healthy Participants NCT04547361 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of E2730 in Healthy Participants NCT03451890 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of the Safety, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of Multiple Doses of E2609 in Healthy Subjects NCT01511783 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of E2609 in Healthy Subjects and an Elderly Cohort NCT01294540 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.