Lenalidomide and Darbepoetin in Low-Intermediate Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 21% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2010-07-31, after 2008-02-29 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellcarcinomasquamousmg dlcancer
Phrases that lowered it: safety ofcondommethodsmethodfemale -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 21.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 184 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 74.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 130 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 9 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 130 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 21.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 184 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 7110 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3974 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 74.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 24.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- darbepoetin alfa, erythropoietin, lenalidomide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Lenalidomide and Prednisone in Low and Int-1 Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) Non 5q MDS NCT01133275 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
- Phase I Study of Lenalidomide in Patients With Acute Leukemia NCT01615042 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
- A Dose Range Finding Study of Lenalidomide in Non-5q Chromosome Deletion in Low and Intermediate Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) Patients NCT00699842 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
- Immunotherapy Using Lenalidomide + Bystander Vaccine in High Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) NCT00840931 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
- Phase II Study of Lenalidomide and Eltrombopag in Patients With Symptomatic Anemia NCT01772420 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.