Bone Loss and Immune Reconstitution in HIV/AIDS (BLIR-HIV)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-04-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellstherapybonebreastreceptor
  Phrases that lowered it: subjectshiv infectedfemalehiv rnain hiv
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 30 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 72 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 108 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 4453 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• High Dose Vitamin D and Calcium for Bone Health in Individuals Initiating HAART NCT01403051 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• Bone, Immunologic, and Virologic Effects of a Antiretroviral Regimen NCT01400412 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Safety and Effectiveness of Alendronate for Bone Mineral Density in HIV-infected Children and Adolescents NCT00921557 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• 10E8.4/iMab Bispecific Antibody in HIV-uninfected and HIV-infected Adults NCT03875209 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Bone Antiresorptive Therapy With Antiretroviral Initiation (BATARI) Pilot Trial NCT01968850 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.