Study of NGX-1998 for the Treatment of Postherpetic Neuralgia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: diabetestreatmentstablemellituseffective
  Phrases that lowered it: dayapplicationevaluateinclusiveabuse
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 9 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 90 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of NGX-4010 With the Use of Open Label Lidocaine (2.5%)/Prilocaine (2.5%) Cream for the Treatment of Postherpetic Neuralgia (PHN) NCT00916942 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• A Crossover Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of XPF-002 in Subjects With Postherpetic Neuralgia (PHN) NCT01195636 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Civamide Nasal Solution for Postherpetic Neuralgia of the Trigeminal Nerve NCT01886313 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Analgesic Activity of ATx08-001 in Subjects With Postherpetic Neuralgia NCT01318226 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Civamide Patch in Treatment of Postherpetic Neuralgia and Post-Incisional Neuralgia NCT00845923 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.