Effect of LEO 80185 Gel on the HPA Axis and Calcium Metabolism in Subjects With Extensive Psoriasis Vulgaris

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: dlserumtherapyhearteffective
  Phrases that lowered it: vulgaristopicalvisitpsoriasisacne
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 26 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 43 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Effect of LEO 90100 on the HPA Axis and Calcium Metabolism in Subjects With Extensive Psoriasis VulgarisExtensive Psoriasis Vulgaris NCT01600222 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• The Pharmacokinetics of LEO 90105 (Calcipotriol Hydrate Plus Betamethasone Dipropionate) in Japanese Subjects With Extensive Psoriasis Vulgaris NCT01768013 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• LEO 80185 in the Treatment of Psoriasis Vulgaris on the Non-scalp Regions of the Body (Trunk and/or Limbs) NCT01188928 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• An International, Multi-centre, Prospective, Non-controlled, Open, Single-group, 8-week Trial in Adolescent Subjects NCT02038569 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Calcipotriol Plus Betamethasone Dipropionate Gel Compared With Tacalcitol Ointment and the Gel Vehicle Alone in Patients With Psoriasis Vulgaris NCT00670241 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.