ECX + Panitumumab vs. ECX Alone in Locally Advanced Gastric Cancer or Cancer of the Gastroesophageal Junction

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancersubjectdiseaseevidencein subjects
  Phrases that lowered it: advancedgastrictrialaccordingcontraceptive
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 26569 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 6072 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 4 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Sorafenib Trial in Advanced and/or Recurrent Gastric Adenocarcinoma: Treatment Evaluation: STARGATE NCT01187212 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Apatinib Combined With S-1 for Patients With Advance Gastric Cancer NCT04338438 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• First-line Apatinib Combined With Tislelizumab and Chemotherapy for Advanced GC NCT06238752 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• REAL3 Trial of Efficacy of EOX With/Without Panitumumab in Previously Untreated Adv OG Cancer NCT00824785 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated
• Erbitux in Combination With Xeloda and Cisplatin in Advanced Esophago-gastric Cancer NCT00678535 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.