Use of a Bimodal Solution for Peritoneal Dialysis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (130 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientsperitonealtherapypatientstage
  Phrases that lowered it: blood pressure90bodyand safetyday
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 46.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 25 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 1009 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 2103 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 53 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Icodextrin Study to Test Short-Term Safety, Tolerability and Preliminary Efficacy of Sodium-Free Solution in PD Patients NCT05185999 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Dianeal, Extraneal, Nutrineal (D-E-N) Versus Dianeal Only in Diabetic Continuous Ambulatory Peritoneal Dialysis (CAPD) Patients NCT01219959 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Assessments of a Peritoneal Dialysis Solution Containing Glucose, Xylitol, and L-Carnitine in CAPD NCT04001036 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials terminated
• Clinical Evaluation of Low Sodium Peritoneal Dialysis (PD) Solution on Hypertensive Patients Treated With PD NCT00794326 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• L-Carnitine as an Osmo-metabolic Agent for Peritoneal Dialysis NCT00851838 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.