A Study in Asthmatics to Determine the Efficacy and Dose Response of Repeat Doses of GW870086X on Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 Second (FEV1)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: to determinesubject hasplacebosubject isprior
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmafev1smokinginhaledthe efficacy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1307 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 455 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Effect of GW870086X on Allergen Challenge in Mild Asthmatics NCT00857857 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Effect of Repeat Doses of GW870086X in Mild to Moderate Asthmatics NCT00945932 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Effect of Inhaling Single Doses of Different Formulations of GW642444M in Asthmatic Patients NCT00702910 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Oral GW766944 (Oral CCR3 Antagonist) NCT01160224 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Bronchodilator Effect of a Single Dose of Fluticasone Furoate (FF)/ Vilanterol (VI) 100/25 Micrograms (mcg) Combination When Administered in Adult Patients With Asthma NCT01837316 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.