Evaluation of the Effect of AZD5069 in Patients With Bronchiectasis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-02-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: diagnosis ofdiseasephase iistableacute
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmarespiratoryvaccineinfectionthe efficacy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 333 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 930 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase II , Placebo-controlled Study to Assess Efficacy of 28 Day Oral AZD9668 in Patients With Bronchiectasis NCT00769119 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of Brensocatib in Participants With Non-Cystic Fibrosis Bronchiectasis NCT04594369 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A 4 Week Study to Investigate the Safety and Tolerability of AZD5069 in Patients With Moderate to Severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT01233232 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Study in Patients With Non-cystic Fibrosis Bronchiectasis to Test How Well Different Doses of BI 1323495 Are Tolerated and How BI 1323495 Affects Biomarkers of Inflammation NCT04656275 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials terminated
• Assessment of INS1007 in Participants With Non-Cystic Fibrosis Bronchiectasis NCT03218917 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.