GnRH-a for Ovarian Protection During CYC Therapy for Rheumatic Diseases

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cyclophosphamidetherapyboneprioradequately
  Phrases that lowered it: massallergicdiseaseshistorysignificant
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Trial of Rituximab and Mycophenolate Mofetil Without Oral Steroids for Lupus Nephritis NCT01773616 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials terminated
• Immunomodulatory Therapy in Women With Autoimmune Premature Ovarian Insufficiency NCT05586737 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Randomized MMF Withdrawal in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) NCT01946880 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials terminated
• Rituximab and Belimumab for Lupus Nephritis NCT02260934 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Autologous Polyclonal Tregs for Lupus NCT02428309 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.