A Study of Erlotinib in Participants With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer With Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor Mutations
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2017-09-29, after 2011-03-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-09-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 31.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 178 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 399 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 399 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 178 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1598 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 526 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 98.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 31.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- erlotinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Tarceva (Erlotinib) in Patients With Locally Advanced, Metastatic or Recurrent Non-Small Cell Cancer Who Present Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor Mutations NCT01372384 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
- A Study of Erlotinib in Participants With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01667562 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
- A Study of Tarceva (Erlotinib) in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (TRIGGER) NCT01378962 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
- A Study of Tarceva (Erlotinib) as First Line Therapy in Participants With Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Harbouring Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Mutations NCT01310036 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
- A Study of Erlotinib (Tarceva) Versus Gemcitabine/Cisplatin as First-line Treatment in Patients With Non-small Cell Lung Cancer With EGFR Mutations NCT01342965 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.