Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of MK-8266 in Elderly Participants With High Blood Pressure (MK-8266-003)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (318 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-03-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: greatercancerparticipantscarcinomause
  Phrases that lowered it: visitscreeningindexmaleblood
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 735 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 205 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate ART101 in Adult Participants With Hypertension NCT06780033 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Pharmacokinetics of MK-2060 in Older Participants With End-Stage Renal Disease on Hemodialysis (MK-2060-004) NCT03873038 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• Safety, Pharmacodynamics, and Pharmacokinetics of Different Dosing Regimens of MK-8266 in Participants With Hypertension (MK-8266-008) NCT01244035 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Hemodynamic Study of Avanafil and Two α-Adrenergic Blockers,Doxazosin and Tamsulosin NCT01100021 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• A Phase II Clinical Study of QR12000 Compound Tablets in Patients With Moderate to Severe Essential Hypertension NCT07700875 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.