MelaViD: A Trial on Vitamin D Supplementation for Resected Stage II Melanoma Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 17% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2017-07-31, after 2010-05-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: melanomastagechronicdiseasecancer
Phrases that lowered it: effect ofthe effectdaylaboratorytrial -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 69.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 30715 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 3 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 30715 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 6517 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 69.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- cholecalciferol
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Vitamin D Supplementation in Cutaneous Malignant Melanoma Outcome NCT01748448 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
- Study of Vitamin D in Untreated Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT01516216 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
- High Dose Vitamin D Study NCT01150877 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
- Study of Vitamin D Supplementation Tailored to Vitamin D Deficiency in Breast Cancer Patients NCT01480869 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
- Vitamin D Levels in Stage IV Colorectal Cancer Patients NCT01074216 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.