Study of SCY-635, Pegasys and Copegus in Hepatitis C

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectgenotyperibavirinbiopsyevidence
  Phrases that lowered it: participantshivvisitthe efficacyrna
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety, Tolerability, and Antiviral Activity of 24 or 48 Weeks of GS-9190 in Combination With Peginterferon Alfa 2a and Ribavirin for the Treatment of Genotype-1 Chronic HCV Infection NCT00743795 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Dose Ranging of GSK2336805 in Combination Therapy NCT01648140 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of 12-weeks of Sovaprevir, ACH-3102, and Ribavirin in Treatment-naive GT-1 HCV Participants NCT01849562 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• A Multiple Ascending Dose Phase I Study of SB 9200 in Treatment Naïve Adults With Chronic Hepatitis C Infection NCT01803308 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, and Antiviral Activity of ACH-0141625 or Placebo in Combination With Peginterferon and Ribavirin in Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) Positive Participants NCT01180790 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.