A Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of GSK1605786A in the Treatment of Subjects With Moderately-to-Severely Active Crohn's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 31% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (213 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-07-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: to screeninggreater thanbowelcrohn diseaseequal to
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccineevaluate theand safetyclinical studyinfluenza
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 451 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1300 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Active Treatment Study to Induce Clinical Response and/or Remission With GSK1605786A in Subjects With Crohn's Disease NCT01536418 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials terminated
• Assessment of Mucosal Activity to Improve the Prognosis of Patients With Crohn's Disease Treated With Immunosuppressants NCT01562951 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
• QBECO SSI for Clinical and Endoscopic Remission in Moderate to Severe Crohn's Disease NCT03472690 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials terminated
• GSK1605786A in the Maintenance of Remission in Subjects With Crohn's Disease NCT01316939 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials terminated
• A Randomized, Double-blind, Study to Explore the Effect of GED-0301 in Subjects With Active Crohn's Disease NCT02367183 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.