A Randomized, Double-Blind, Comparator- and Placebo-Controlled, Multiple-Dose Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of Three Dose Levels of MSDC-0602 in Type 2 Diabetic Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 57.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mg dlleukemiacancerpriorthe patient
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningvisitevaluate thesingleto evaluate
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of Three Dose Levels of Mitoglitazone in Type 2 Diabetic Patients NCT01103414 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Study of Single and Multiple Doses of Oral Insulin or Placebo in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT02954601 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Safety, Pharmacokinetics (PK) and Pharmacodynamics (PD) of Multiple Oral Bedtime Doses of ORMD-0801 in Adult Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) NCT01889667 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of ORMD-0801 (Oral Insulin) in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT03467932 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Tolerability of MEDI0382 in Overweight and Obese Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT03745937 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.