An 8-week Study to Evaluate the Dose Response of AHU377 in Combination With Valsartan 320 mg in Patients With Mild-to-moderate Systolic Hypertension

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placeboother protocolrandomized doubledouble blindmay apply
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsmild toto moderateblood pressurewith mild
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 269 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 76.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 6173 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 25733 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of LCZ696 Compared to Placebo in Patients With Essential Hypertension NCT01193101 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• A Long Term Safety Study to Test the Combination of Aliskiren/ Amlodipine / Hydrochlorothiazide in Participants With Essential Hypertension NCT00667719 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Aliskiren/Amlodipine/Hydrochlorothiazide in Patients With Moderate-severe Hypertension NCT00765674 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Valsartan/Amlodipine in Patients With Mild to Moderate Essential Hypertension NCT01001572 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety in Participants With Uncontrolled Hypertension on Two or More Medications Including Participants With Resistant Hypertension NCT07790120 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.