A Study of Vemurafenib (RO5185426) in Participants With Metastatic or Unresectable Papillary Thyroid Cancer Positive for the BRAF V600 Mutation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancersquamoustherapypriorcell
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsrelevantopenlabelevaluate
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 184 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 416 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Vemurafenib in Participants With BRAF V600 Mutation-Positive Cancers NCT01524978 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• Enhancing Radioiodine Incorporation Into BRAF Mutant Thyroid Cancers With the Combination of Vemurafenib and KTN3379 NCT02456701 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• A Study of Vemurafenib (Zelboraf) in Chinese Participants With BRAF V600 Mutation-Positive Unresectable or Metastatic Melanoma NCT01910181 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• A Study of Vemurafenib in Participants With Metastatic Melanoma NCT01307397 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Phase II Safety Study of Vemurafenib Followed by Ipilimumab in Subjects With V600 BRAF Mutated Advanced Melanoma NCT01673854 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.