Smoking Cessation With the Nicotine Patch: A Pilot Study of Patch Messaging
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (146 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2011-11-30, after 2010-11-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: strokeheartpurpose ofanginaattack
Phrases that lowered it: nicotinesmokingcigarettesper daytobacco -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 25.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 55 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 9 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 68 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 55 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 15007 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1720 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 25.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 3.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- nicotine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Providing Free Nicotine Patches to Quitline Smokers NCT01736085 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- Telephone Counseling and the Distribution of Nicotine Patches to Smokers NCT00851357 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- STARS (Smoking Treatment And Remote Sampling) Study NCT04525755 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- Effects of Random Nicotine Delivery on Smoking Cessation NCT03674970 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Neural Correlates of Personalized Treatment With Transdermal Nicotine Replacement NCT02439944 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.