BAY73-4506 Probe Substrate Study
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-07-30, after 2011-08-02 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-07-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: heartfailurepriornewventricular
Phrases that lowered it: subjectspharmacokineticsevaluatethe effecteffect of -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 123 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 384 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 20368 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 80.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 384 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 123 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 5 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 85235 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 20368 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 80.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 12.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- midazolam, omeprazole, regorafenib, rosiglitazone, warfarin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Open Label Regorafenib Study to Evaluate Cardiovascular Safety Parameters, Tolerability, and Anti-tumor Activity NCT01339104 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
- Study of Regorafenib in Patients With Advanced Myeloid Malignancies NCT03042689 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
- Study Comparing Different Dose Approaches of Induction Treatment of Regorafenib in MCRC NCT02835924 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- Safety Study of Regorafenib With PF-03446962 to Treat Colorectal Cancer NCT02116894 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
- Study Maintenance Regorafenib vs Placebo, no Progression Patients After I Line Chemotherapy Metastatic Gastric Cancer NCT03627728 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.