Efficacy of Nilotinib in Adult Patients With Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors Resistant to Imatinib and Sunitinib.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastatictumorspatientsprogressionimatinib
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacyevaluate theto evaluatestudythe investigator
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 178 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 143 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 81.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Nilotinib Versus Imatinib in GIST Patients NCT00785785 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Nilotinib In Patients With Advanced Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumor (GIST) NCT01110668 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of AMN107 in Patients With GastroIntestinal Stromal Tumors (GIST) Who Have Failed Both Imatinib and Sunitinib NCT00718562 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• A Dose-finding Study of a Combination of Imatinib and BYL719 in the Treatment of 3rd Line GIST Patients NCT01735968 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
• Phase II Study Aiming to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Nilotinib Patients With Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors (GIST) Resistant or Intolerant to Imatinib and or to 2nd Line Tyrosine Kinas (TK) Inhibitor NCT00633295 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.