Efficacy of Lanthanum Carbonate in Calciphylaxis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 19% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (137 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: to determineiipatientdetermine ifbiopsy
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsvisitproductefficacyparticipant
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 56 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 128 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 86.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 511 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Lanthanum Carbonate (Fosrenol®) to Reduce Oxalate Excretion in Patients With Secondary Hyperoxaluria and Nephrolithiasis NCT03346369 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• Effects of Lanthanum Carbonate on FGF-23 in Subjects With Stage 3 CKD NCT01128179 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• Chewed vs. Crushed Lanthanum Carbonate in Hemodialysis Patients NCT00660530 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Tolerability of Oxylanthanum Carbonate in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease on Dialysis NCT06218290 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Clinical Trial of Intravenous Sodium Thiosulfate in Acute Calciphylaxis Patients NCT03150420 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.