Oleogel-S10 in Wound Healing of Inherited Epidermolysis Bullosa (BEB-10)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (240 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: diabeticpurpose ofthe purposecontrolleddiabetes
  Phrases that lowered it: lesionslesionskinpatientswound
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 95 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Allocation: non randomized (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Effectiveness and Safety of SD-101 in Participants With Epidermolysis Bullosa NCT02014376 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of ABH001 in the Treatment of Patients With Epidermolysis Bullosa Who Have Wounds That Are Not Healing NCT01749306 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials terminated
• Phase III Efficacy and Safety Study of Oleogel-S10 in Epidermolysis Bullosa NCT03068780 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Phase 3, Open-label Clinical Trial of EB-101 for the Treatment of Recessive Dystrophic Epidermolysis Bullosa (RDEB) NCT04227106 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• ESSENCE Study: Efficacy and Safety of SD-101 Cream in Participants With Epidermolysis Bullosa NCT02384460 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.