Comparison of Two Treatment Regimens (Sitagliptin Versus Liraglutide) on Participants Who Failed to Achieve Good Glucose Control on Metformin Alone (MK-0431-403)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2012-02-29, after 2011-03-11 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-02-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: syndromeleukemiacoronaryheartfunction
Phrases that lowered it: participantsand safetysafety ofmetforminefficacy and -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 51.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 183 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 771 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 17375 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 79 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 65140 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 79 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 771 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 183 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 4 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 65140 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 17375 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 51.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 5.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- glimepiride, liraglutide, metformin, sitagliptin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Randomized Sitagliptin Withdrawal Study (MK-0431-845) NCT02738879 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy of Sitagliptin Compared With Glimepiride in Elderly Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (MK-0431-251) NCT01189890 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
- A Study in China Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of Adding Sitagliptin to Stable Therapy With Insulin With or Without Metformin in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) (MK-0431-254) NCT01590797 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
- A Study in China Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of Adding Sitagliptin to Stable Therapy With Sulfonylurea With or Without Metformin in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) (MK-0431-253) NCT01590771 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
- A Study to Assess the Addition of Sitagliptin to Metformin Compared With the Addition of Dapagliflozin to Metformin in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) and Mild Renal Impairment Who Have Inadequate Glycemic Control on Metformin With or Without a Sulfonylurea (MK-0431-838) NCT02532855 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.