Clinical Study to Evaluate the Maximum Tolerated Dose of BAY87-2243 in Patients With Advanced Malignancies

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: tumortherapyheartmetastaticadvanced
  Phrases that lowered it: tabletgroupspharmacokineticsmoderateonce daily
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 129 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 367 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 7 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Clinical Study to Evaluate Safety and Maximum Tolerated Dose of BAY1000394 Given in a 4 Week on / 2 Week Off Schedule in Subjects With Advanced Malignancies NCT01335256 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• Phase I Dose Escalation Study With an Allosteric AKT 1/2 Inhibitor in Patients NCT01915576 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
• Clinical Study to Evaluate the Maximum Tolerated Dose of BAY1000394 Given in a 3 Days on / 4 Days Off Schedule in Subjects With Advanced Malignancies NCT01188252 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
• To Determine Maximum Tolerated Dose of BAY79-4620 in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors NCT01028755 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Phase I Dose Escalation and Expansion of Oral BAY 1143269 in Combination With Intravenous Docetaxel NCT02439346 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.