Intralesional Antimony for Bolivian Cutaneous Leishmaniasis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2012-07-31, after 2011-01-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: therapylesiontreatmentbiopsycutaneous
Phrases that lowered it: evaluatemaleratediseases80 -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 50% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Responsible party: sponsor (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 20 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 4 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 12 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 20 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 11 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 50% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- antimony
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Miltefosine Plus IL Pentamidine for Bolivian CL NCT03445897 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
- Oral Miltefosine Plus Topical Paromomycin In American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis NCT03829917 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- Oral Miltefosine Plus Topical Imiquimod to Treat Cutaneous Leishmaniasis NCT01380314 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
- Miltefosine and GM-CSF in Cutaneous Leishmaniasis NCT03023111 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
- Topical Paromomycin for Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Bolivia NCT03096457 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.