1st Line Treatment of Bevacizumab-Taxane vs Bevacizumab-Exemestane in Metastatic Breast Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2018-05-31, after 2010-06-30 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: bevacizumabcancerpaclitaxelchemotherapymetastatic
Phrases that lowered it: days beforemonths beforepatients whotrialhaving -
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 4771 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 8 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 25% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 20708 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4771 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 93.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 16.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- bevacizumab, exemestane, paclitaxel
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Bevacizumab Plus Paclitaxel Optimization Study With Interventional Aintenance Endocrine Therapy in Breast Cancer NCT01989780 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
- A Study of Avastin (Bevacizumab) + Xeloda (Capecitabine)as Maintenance Therapy in Patients With HER2-Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00929240 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
- Biweekly Avastin and Docetaxel as the First Line Treatment for Patients With Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00979641 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials terminated
- A Study of Avastin (Bevacizumab) in Combination With Chemotherapy in Patients With Breast Cancer Progressing After First-Line Therapy With Avastin and Chemotherapy (TANIA) NCT01250379 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
- Bevacizumab in Combination With Vinorelbine and Trastuzumab for HER2-Positive, Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00670982 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.