The Efficacy and Tolerance of Tacrolimus Sustained-release Capsules on Refractory Nephrotic Syndrome (RNS)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (169 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapyrefractoryprednisonesystemicprior
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacy andthe efficacyand safetykgscreening
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 46 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 14 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Tacrolimus Sustained-release Capsules in Induction Treatment in Refractory Lupus Nephritis NCT01328834 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Rituximab in the First Episode of Pediatric Idiopathic Nephrotic Syndrome NCT04783675 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• Therapeutic Effect of Tacrolimus in Combination With Low Dose Corticosteroid in Adult Patient With Minimal Change Nephritic Syndrome NCT01084980 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• Efficacy of Rituximab For the Treatment of Calcineurin Inhibitors Dependent Nephrotic Syndrome During Childhood NCT01268033 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Cyclophosphamide Versus Mycophenolate Mofetil for the Treatment of Steroid-dependent Nephrotic Syndrome in Children NCT01092962 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.