A 52-Week, Multicenter, Randomized, Double-Blind, Parallel-Group, Placebo-Controlled Study to Evaluate the Safety and Tolerability of GSK573719/GW642444 and GSK573719 in Subjects With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 4% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-07-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: long termterm safetythe longin subjectssubjects with
  Phrases that lowered it: copdactingproductsinhaleduse of
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 451 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 1314 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 120 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• 24-week Trial Comparing GSK573719/GW642444 With GW642444 and With Tiotropium in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease NCT01316900 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• 24-week Trial Comparing GSK573719/GW642444 With GSK573719 and With Tiotropium in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease NCT01316913 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Randomized, Double Blind, Placebo Controlled, Incomplete Block, Crossover, Dose Ranging Study to Evaluate the Dose Response of GSK573719 Administered Once or Twice Daily Over 7 Days in Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT01372410 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A 24-week Evaluation of GSK573719/Vilanterol (62.5/25mcg) and Components in COPD NCT01313650 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A 24-week Evaluation of GSK573719/Vilanterol (125/25mcg) and Components in COPD NCT01313637 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.