A Phase II Study of Single Agent MEK162 in Patients With Advanced Melanoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 33% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-02-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticlocallyprotocoladvancedmay apply
  Phrases that lowered it: labelsingleopenefficacystudy to
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 390 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 902 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study Comparing Combination of LGX818 Plus MEK162 Versus Vemurafenib and LGX818 Monotherapy in BRAF Mutant Melanoma NCT01909453 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Study Comparing the Efficacy of MEK162 Versus Dacarbazine in Unresectable or Metastatic NRAS Mutation-positive Melanoma NCT01763164 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Study to Determine the Effectiveness of GSK1120212 in BRAF Mutation-positive Melanoma Previously Treated With or Without a BRAF Inhibitor NCT01037127 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• A Phase Ib/II Study of AEB071 and MEK162 in Adult Patients With Metastatic Uveal Melanoma NCT01801358 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Efficacy of LEE011 and LGX818 in Patients With BRAF Mutant Melanoma. NCT01777776 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.