Monotherapy of Itraconazole Versus Prednisolone in Allergic Bronchopulmonary Aspergillosis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (81 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-12-31, after 2011-04-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: enrollmentfailureprecedingdefinedpulmonary
Phrases that lowered it: to evaluateevaluate thepatientscountefficacy and -
Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 12 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 11 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 15 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 24268 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 5058 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 96.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 21.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory, immunology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- itraconazole, prednisolone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Randomized Trial of Itraconazole in Acute Stages of Allergic Bronchopulmonary Aspergillosis NCT02440009 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
- A Randomized Controlled Trial of Inhaled Amphotericin B for Maintaining Remission in Allergic Bronchopulmonary Aspergillosis NCT01857479 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Voriconazole Versus Oral Steroids in Allergic Bronchopulmonary Aspergillosis NCT01621321 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Trial on the Efficacy and Safety of Two Different Glucocorticoid Dose Regimens in Allergic Bronchopulmonary Aspergillosis NCT00974766 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Six Months Versus 12 Months of Oral Itraconazole Therapy for Management of Treatment naïve Subjects With CPA NCT03920527 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.