Study of Decitabine Induction Prior to Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplant in Newly Diagnosed MDS Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 30% of the time (107 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: celltransplantmdscarcinomaleukemia
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsstemopen labelreceiptfev1
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 30.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 9 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Differentiation Therapy With Decitabine in Treating Patients With Myelodysplastic Syndrome NCT01165996 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Phase I, Dose Escalation Study of Decitabine NCT02264873 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Decitabine and Total-Body Irradiation Followed By Donor Bone Marrow Transplant and Cyclophosphamide in Treating Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Acute Myeloid Leukemia NCT01707004 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Busulfan, Fludarabine Phosphate, and Anti-Thymocyte Globulin Followed By Donor Stem Cell Transplant and Azacitidine in Treating Patients With High-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome and Older Patients With Acute Myeloid Leukemia NCT01168219 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Microtransplantation With Decitabine and Cytarabine Improves Patient Outcomes in Myelodysplastic Syndromes NCT01674985 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.