A Phase II Trial of OSI-906 and Sorafenib in Advanced Hepatocellular Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 32% for any early termination, 24% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancercombinationpriortherapyenrollment
  Phrases that lowered it: to evaluateevaluate theefficacysafety ofdrugs
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 74 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 82.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 5734 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Randomized, Placebo-controlled, Double-blind Phase 2 Study With OSI-906 in Patients With Advanced HCC NCT01101906 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
• CVM-1118 and Sorafenib Combination in Subjects With Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma NCT03582618 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
• Chinese Herbal Formulation PHY906 and Sorafenib Tosylate in Treating Patients With Advanced Liver Cancer NCT01666756 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• Trial of S-1 in Combination With Sorafenib for Patients With Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma NCT01131689 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• Sorafenib Plus Tegafur-uracil (UFT) Versus Sorafenib as First Line Systemic Treatment for Patients With Advanced Stage HCC, Unresectable & Not Eligible for Local Ablation and/or TACE NCT01539018 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.