L-CsA in the Prevention of Bronchiolitis Obliterans Syndrome (BOS) in Lung Transplant (LT) Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (370 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lungtherapytransplanttransplantationpatient
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andtopicalclinicalsingle
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 11756 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Long-term Safety Follow-up Study in the Prevention of Bronchiolitis Obliterans Syndrome (BOS) NCT01439958 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials terminated
• Extension Study (Extended Access) of Cyclosporine Inhalation Solution (CIS) in Lung Transplant and Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant Recipients for the Treatment of Bronchiolitis Obliterans NCT01273207 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• A Safety Study of Liposomal Cyclosporine A to Treat Bronchiolitis After Hematopoietic Transplant (BOSTON-4) NCT04107675 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials terminated
• Extension Trial on Efficacy / Safety of L-CsA + SoC in Treating BOS in Post Single or Double Lung Transplant (BOSTON-3) NCT04039347 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy + Safety of Liposome Cyclosporine A to Treat Bronchiolitis Obliterans Post Single Lung Transplant (BOSTON-1) NCT03657342 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.