Study of Vidaza (Azacitidine) Versus Support Treatment in Patients With Low Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (Low and Intermediate-1 IPSS) Without the 5q Deletion and Transfusion Dependent Anaemia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 30% of the time (107 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: syndromewomentransfusionmyelodysplasticheart
  Phrases that lowered it: effect ofthe effectaccordingevaluate theto evaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 45.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Azacitidine Combined to Epoetin Beta in International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) Low-risk and Intermediate-1 Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) Patients, Resistant to Erythropoetin-stimulating Agents (ESA) NCT01015352 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• Intensified Azacitidine in High Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) NCT01305460 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• 5-Azacitidine in Low-risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDSs) NCT00897130 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• APG101 in Myelodysplastic Syndrome NCT01736436 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Comparison Study of Standard Care Against Combination of Growth Factors Agents for Low-risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes NCT01196715 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.