Phase II BGG492 Capsule Extension for Partial Epilepsy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: extensionlong termtolerabilitythe longterm safety
  Phrases that lowered it: drugsdiseasesinhibitorspatientsdrug
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 285 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 301 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 10 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of BGG492 as Adjunctive Treatment in Patients With Partial Onset Seizures NCT01147003 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• A Study to Test the Safety/ Efficacy of Brivaracetam (BRV) Used as Adjunctive Treatment in Subjects >=16 Years of Age With Partial Seizures With or Without Secondary Generalization NCT03250377 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Long-term Safety, and Efficacy of Brivaracetam (BRV) Used as Adjunctive Treatment in Subjects With Epilepsy NCT01728077 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• Efficacy of BGG492 in Individuals With Refractory Partial Seizures Undergoing Inpatient Evaluation for Epilepsy Surgery NCT00887861 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• Long-term Safety and Efficacy of Adjunctive Brivaracetam in Chinese Patients With Uncontrolled Focal Epilepsy NCT07563634 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.