Study of Ruxolitinib (INCB018424) Sustained Release Formulation in Myelofibrosis Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 25% of the time (96 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 21.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: petbonemarrowmyelofibrosistherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsformulationreleasescreeningdosing
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 14 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Controlled Myelofibrosis Study With Oral Janus-associated Kinase (JAK) Inhibitor Treatment-II: The COMFORT-II Trial NCT00934544 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Ruxolitinib (INCB018424) in Participants With Primary Myelofibrosis (PMF), Post Essential Thrombocythemia-myelofibrosis and Post Polycythemia Vera-myelofibrosis (PPV-MF) NCT01348490 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Alternative Dosing Strategy of Ruxolitinib in Patients With Myelofibrosis NCT01445769 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• To Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of Itacitinib Immediate Release Tablets in Participants With Primary or Secondary Myelofibrosis Who Have Received Prior Ruxolitinib and/or Fedratinib Monotherapy (LIMBER-213) NCT04629508 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• COntrolled MyeloFibrosis Study With ORal JAK Inhibitor Treatment: The COMFORT-I Trial NCT00952289 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.