Assessment of Safety, Tolerability and Blood Concentrations of Single Doses of AZD3839 in Healthy Volunteers

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimersafety tolerabilitychildbearing potentialplacebo controllednon childbearing
  Phrases that lowered it: healthykgvolunteerseffectopen label
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 310 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 980 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: basic science (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Investigate Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of AZD2423 in Healthy Volunteers NCT00940212 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics (PK) (Including Food Effect) of Oral Doses of AZD5847 in Healthy Volunteers NCT01037725 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• AZD6088 Single Ascending Dose Study NCT00931541 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Study to Investigate Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of AZD2423 Multiple Doses in Healthy Volunteers NCT00977626 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• A First Time in Man, Study to Assess the Safety of AZD8329 After Single Ascending Oral Doses NCT00935662 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.