Effect of Modulating the nNOS System on Cardiac, Muscular and Cognitive Function in Becker Muscular Dystrophy Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cognitivesubjectcardiacstrokemri
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsnormaldrugsfindingsreceptor
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 40 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 16673 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 68 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Sodium Nitrate for Muscular Dystrophy NCT02434627 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Revatio for Heart Disease in Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy and Becker Muscular Dystrophy NCT01168908 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
• PDE Inhibitors in DMD Study (Acute Dosing Study) NCT01580501 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study of IGF-1 in Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy NCT01207908 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• L-citrulline and Metformin in Becker's Muscular Dystrophy NCT02018731 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.