Study of MK-1972 in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-1 Infected Participants Who Have Not Previously Received Antiretroviral Therapy (MK-1972-003)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2012-01-03, after 2011-06-21 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-01-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 806 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: hiv infectedtherapymldefinedto administration
Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticshcvclinically significanthistoryscreening -
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 175 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 8 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 55 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 806 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 175 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of MK-8527 in Human Immunodeficiency Type 1 Virus (HIV-1) Infected Participants (MK-8527-002) NCT03615183 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
- Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Anti-Retroviral Activity of MK-8558 Monotherapy in Anti-Retroviral-Naïve HIV-1 Infected Participants (MK-8558-002) NCT03859739 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
- A Study of Doravirine (MK-1439) in Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 (HIV-1)-Infected Participants (MK-1439-005) NCT01466985 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
- Single-Dose Study of MK-4250 Monotherapy in Anti-Retroviral Therapy-Naive, Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-1 Infected Participants (MK-4250-002) NCT03351699 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Antiretroviral Activity of Ulonivirine (MK-8507) in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV-1)-Infected Participants (MK-8507-003) NCT02174159 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.