Pharmacokinetic Study of Single and Repeated Dose of Roflumilast 500 µg , in Healthy Chinese Subjects

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (355 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chronicclinical relevanceacutepositiveinfections
  Phrases that lowered it: healthymaleclinicallysubjectsblood pressure
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 316 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 965 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 71.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Pharmacokinetic Study of RO4917838 in Healthy Chinese Volunteers NCT01433575 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
• A 2-Part Study to Evaluate the Safety of Supra-Therapeutic Doses of RO4602522 and to Investigate the Effect of RO4602522 on the QTc Interval NCT02104648 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of RO7062931 in Healthy Chinese Volunteers. NCT03505190 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Double-Blind Single-Ascending Dose (SAD) and Multiple-Ascending Dose (MAD) Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of RO7049389 in Healthy Chinese Participants NCT03570658 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A Single Dose Study of Radiolabeled RO4602522 in Healthy Volunteers NCT01631422 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.