Efficacy and Safety of Arbaclofen Placarbil in Subjects With Spasticity Due to Multiple Sclerosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjects within subjectsstablediseasesubject
  Phrases that lowered it: kneescreeningevaluate theand safetyper day
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 17 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Investigate the Safety and Effectiveness of Arbaclofen Extended-Release Tablets for Patients With MS NCT03290131 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Efficacy Study of Arbaclofen to Treat Spasticity in Multiple Sclerosis NCT01743651 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• One Year, Open Label, Dose Escalation Long-term Safety Study in Multiple Sclerosis (MS) Subjects With Spasticity NCT01844232 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Long-term Safety of Arbaclofen Extended-Release Tablets for Patients With Spasticity Due to MS NCT03319732 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• A Study With IPX056 in Subjects With Spasticity Associated With Multiple Sclerosis NCT00914290 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.