Ticagrelor Versus Prasugrel in Acute Coronary Syndromes After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: acutetherapyrandomizationmyocardialinfarction
  Phrases that lowered it: crossoverdaysinglevisitperiod
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Prasugrel in Comparison to Clopidogrel for Inhibition of Platelet Reactivity in Patients With ST-elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI) NCT01338909 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Clopidogrel to Prasugrel in Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS) Patients NCT01115738 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Ticagrelor Loading Dose Versus Clopidogrel Loading and Reloading With Ticagrelor. NCT01961856 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Testing Platelet Reactivity In Patients Undergoing Elective Stent Placement on Clopidogrel to Guide Alternative Therapy With Prasugrel (TRIGGER-PCI) NCT00910299 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials terminated
• Ticagrelor and Eptifibatide Bolus-Only Versus Ticagrelor and Eptifibatide Bolus Plus Abbreviated Infusion NCT01919723 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.