A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of CCX168 in Subjects With ANCA-Associated Vasculitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: keyrituximabplacebo controlledblind placebocyclophosphamide
  Phrases that lowered it: bleedingweeksefficacyto evaluatecorticosteroids
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 75 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 221 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Clinical Trial to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of CCX168 in ANCA-Associated Vasculitis NCT02222155 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Clinical Trial of CCX168 (Avacopan) in Patients With ANCA-Associated Vasculitis NCT02994927 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• Plasma Exchange and Glucocorticoids for Treatment of Anti-Neutrophil Cytoplasm Antibody (ANCA) - Associated Vasculitis NCT00987389 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Substitution of Glucocorticoid for BDB-001 Injection in Patients With Anti-neutrophil Cytoplasmic Antibody(ANCA)-Associated Vasculitis NCT05197842 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• PR3-AAV Resilient Remission or PRRR NCT05376319 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.