Comparison of Two Insulin Degludec Formulations in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 3% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: priorstableivreceptorcentral
  Phrases that lowered it: insulinthis trialvisittrial isdegludec
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 97 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 406 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Trial Comparing Efficacy and Safety of Insulin Degludec and Insulin Glargine in Insulin naïve Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes NCT01849289 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Trial Comparing the Efficacy, Patient-reported Outcomes and Safety of Insulin Degludec 200 U/mL vs Insulin Glargine in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Requiring High-dose Insulin NCT01570751 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Trial Comparing the Safety and Efficacy of Insulin Degludec and Insulin Glargine, With or Without OADs in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes NCT02030600 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• A 26-week Trial Comparing Efficacy and Safety of Insulin Degludec/Insulin Aspart BID and Insulin Degludec OD Plus Insulin Aspart in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Treated With Basal Insulin in Need of Treatment Intensification With Mealtime Insulin NCT01713530 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Switching From Insulin Glargine to Insulin Degludec in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (BEGIN™) NCT01135992 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.