A Study of LY2495655 in Older Participants Undergoing Elective Total Hip Replacement

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationplacebodialysisprior toventricular
  Phrases that lowered it: oculareyeinsulinparticipantuln
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 577 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess the Analgesic Efficacy of ASP7962 in Patients With Pain Due to Osteoarthritis of the Knee NCT02611466 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• A Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics (PK) and Target Engagement (TE) Study of GSK3858279 in Healthy Participants and Evaluation of the Efficacy of Repeat Doses in Participants With Osteoarthritis (OA) NCT03485365 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Starting a Testosterone and Exercise Program After Hip Injury NCT02938923 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• Chronic Pain Master Protocol (CPMP): A Study of LY3016859 in Participants With Osteoarthritis NCT04456686 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Safety and Pharmacokinetics of MK-2060 in Older Participants With End-Stage Renal Disease on Hemodialysis (MK-2060-004) NCT03873038 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.