A Multi-site Double-blind Placebo-controlled Trial of Memantine Versus Placebo in Children With Autism (MEM)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (407 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientplacebostablememantineprior
  Phrases that lowered it: childrenpatients wholegalrespiratoryguardian
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 6 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Behavioral and Neural Response to Memantine in Adolescents With Autism Spectrum Disorder NCT01972074 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Memantine for the Treatment of Social Deficits in Youth With Disorders of Impaired Social Interactions NCT03553875 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated
• Withdrawal Study of Memantine in Pediatric Patients With Autism, Asperger's Disorder, or Pervasive Developmental Disorder Not Otherwise Specified Previously Treated With Memantine NCT01592747 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Safety Study of Memantine in Pediatric Patients With Autism, Asperger's Disorder or Pervasive Developmental Disorder Not Otherwise Specified (PDD-NOS) NCT01592773 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated
• Open-label Study of Safety and Tolerability of Memantine in Children With Autism NCT01999894 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.